Socioeconomic deterioration in the Virunga area is likely to follow oil and gas extraction. Hydrocarbon pollution related to extraction and transport would have a serious impact on the health and food security of those relying on Lake Edward’s fish, as raised in 2020 via a letter to President Tshisekediby from local fishermen. Water contamination would also spread to the Semliki River, while the development of oil infrastructures would conflict with the area’s tourism economy.

The risk of dangerous volcanic activity will rise if drilling takes place near the park’s eight volcanoes, posing a threat to the land and livelihoods of local communities. The African Conservation Foundation has drawn parallels between Virunga National Park and Indonesia, where 30,000 people were displaced in a volcanic eruption during 2006. The volcano is expected to continue erupting until at least 2031, which 74 geologists have agreed is a direct result of oil and gas drilling.

The worsening of tensions between local communities and factions is anticipated by crisis experts: Eastern DRC has been torn by violence for years and oil exploration could exacerbate this. Research shows that conflict already blighted Virunga National Park’s communities before the discovery of oil, sparked by minimal consultation on park management, controversial land demarcation and disparate resource access. Oil extraction would demand portions of the area’s available land and could fuel these conflicts.

Increasingly violent state-sanctioned repression is likely against groups opposing the auctioning and in response to tensions created by fossil fuel development, based on Congolese precedent. Environmental campaigners and Virunga park rangers alike have been punished by the authorities for trying to protect animals and biodiversity. The ranger Rodrigue Katembo was imprisoned in 2013 for campaigning against Soco International intimidation, while the Virunga National Park Chief Warden Emmanuel de Mérode was ambushed and shot in 2014. In July 2017, five DRC park rangers were murdered in a single weekend. Such repression has historically been inflamed by corrupt relations between DRC government officials and oil companies.

Local greenhouse gas emissions will increase as Virunga National Park’s carbon storage systems are cleared for development. Virunga is located at the eastern end of the Congo Basin rainforest, which is the second largest after the Amazon. These massive ecosystems are essential for carbon sequestration and climate regulation. Furthermore, fossil fuel expansion is not in line with the International Energy Agency’s 2050 net-zero roadmap, which puts oil and gas exploration in Virunga directly at odds with efforts to mitigate climate change.

Further damage to Virunga’s wildlife and biodiversity is a projected outcome of gas and oil exploration in the national park, which has been on UNESCO’s World Heritage in Danger list since 1979. The park covers 790,000 hectares and comprises various ecosystems including a tropical forest, the Rwenzori Mountains and several volcanoes. These environments are home to unique flora and fauna including okapis, large hippo colonies and around 200 critically endangered mountain gorillas.

The corruption of government officials has historically accompanied oil expansionism in DCR. During the early 2010s, the exploratory activities of Pharos Energy (called Soco at the time) in the Virunga National Park triggered multiple accusations of corruption and intimidation against the British oil company. A 2014 Global Witness report reveals that opponents of Soco were physically abused, while the company engaged in bribery with Congolese members of parliament and attempted to install spies among Virunga’s park rangers.